On the final weekend of the regular season all six league games will kick off at the same time at 2.15 on Sunday afternoon and it promises to be an exciting afternoon.
News broke on Thursday that Pontypridd United had failed in their appeal to secure a domestic license to stay in the JD Cymru Premier, and therefore the Rhondda club will be relegated at the end of the season, even if they did manage to climb out of the bottom two positions.
That means it’s between Aberystwyth Town and Colwyn Bay to be the second club to fall this year, and Aber go into the final game two points above the Seagulls.
If Pontypridd United were to climb up to 10th place on the final day, they would become the first team since Bangor City (2018) to be relegated from the JD Cymru Premier despite finishing above the relegation zone.
In the race for 7th place, the winners of the match between Pen-y-bont and Haverfordwest County will claim their place in the play-offs for European qualification.
In the semi-final of the play-off games on the weekend of 10-12 May the team that finishes in 4th will host the 7th-placed side, while the club that is in 5th will host the club in 6th place.
The New Saints, Connah’s Quay and Bala Town have all secured their place in Europe after confirming their positions in the top three of the table.
In the second tier, Briton Ferry Llansawel have won the JD Cymru South championship and they have secured promotion to the top-flight.
Flint Town United will also return to the JD Cymru Premier after only one season, as the Silkmen have confirmed their place in the top two with Holywell Town, who have failed to get a license to ascend this year.
If Holywell Town were to win the JD Cymru North, then they would become the fourth club from the last eight champions to finish top of a second-tier league and be refused promotion (Prestatyn Town – 2010, Swansea University – 2010, Llantwit Major – 2022).
TOP SIX
Caernarfon Town (5th) v Bala Town (3rd) | Sunday – 14:15
Caernarfon Town will welcome Bala Town to the Oval on the final weekend of the regular season, but the Cofis will have at least one additional fixture to play before the end of their campaign.
Caernarfon Town are preparing to take part in the play-offs for the fourth time in their history and hope to grab a ticket to Europe for the first time ever.
Caernarfon Town played in the play-offs for the first time at the end of the 2018/19 season, losing 3-2 at the Oval against Cardiff Met in the semi-final.
The Cofis went a step further in the 2020/21 season, winning at Barry Town United in the semi-final before losing 5-3 at home to Newtown in the final.
Then in 2021/22, the Canaries finally won the play-offs by beating Cardiff Met and Flint Town United at the Oval.
But unfortunately for Caernarfon Town, 2021/22 was the only season where the play-off winners did not reach Europe (due to Wales’ position on the UEFA coefficient list), but instead qualified for the Scottish Challenge Cup, and so the Cofis are still desperate for their first taste of European football.
It’s been a solid season for Caernarfon overall, but the squad has started to falter at the worst possible time losing three in a row, including defeats against Newtown, and Cardiff Met, which are two of the clubs that will compete against them in the play-offs.
Bala Town have secured their place in Europe for the ninth time in their history, and Colin Caton and co will start planning for another European adventure with just two months until the clubs discover their opponents in the first qualifying round of the Europa Conference League.
Bala Town have not lost any of their previous 10 games against Caernarfon Town (six wins, four draws), and it finished 1-1 in the three previous meetings between the clubs.
League form:
Caernarfon Town: ❌❌❌✅➖
Bala Town: ➖❌➖✅➖
Cardiff Met (6th) v Newtown (4th) | Sunday – 14:15
Cardiff Met and Newtown will compete in the European play-offs next month, and both teams will be keen to finish the season as high as possible to secure a home tie.
The club that finishes 4th will have the advantage of playing at home against the 7th placed team in the play-off semi-finals, with the 5th placed team also securing a home tie against the club that finishing in 6th.
In the final, the top club in the table will be allowed to play at home, and therefore finishing 4th would ensure home games in both the semi-final and final.
Two points currently separate the two clubs which means a win for the Archers would lift them above the Robins on the final weekend.
After a shaky start to his tenure as Newtown’s new manager, results have improved significantly for Scott Ruscoe recently with only one loss in the last five games (vs TNS).
It’s a different story in the capital as Cardiff Met have lost seven of their last eight games in all competitions.
Disruption in the camp may have contributed to the students’ struggle as club stalwarts, Emlyn Lewis and Charlie Corsby announced that they have been shown the door at Cyncoed Campus.
Newtown will be competing in the play-offs for the eighth time in their history, and no club has won the competition more often than the Robins (2 – level with Bangor City).
Newtown, Cardiff Met and Bala Town are the only clubs to reach the play-off final on three separate occasions, but the Robins lost in the final last year (on penalties vs Haverfordwest County).
Haverfordwest County beat Cardiff Met on penalties in last year’s semi-final, which was the Archers’ fifth appearance in the play-offs.
After ascending to the JD Cymru Premier in the summer of 2016, Met reached the play-off final three times in a row, losing against Bangor City in 2017, Cefn Druids in 2018, before beating Bala Town on penalties in 2019 and reached Europe for the only time in their history.
Since then, Cardiff Met have lost in the semi-finals of the play-off games in 2022 (vs Caernarfon Town) and again last year in 2023 (vs Haverfordwest County).
Cardiff Met have already played in two semi-finals this year but lost both matches against Swansea’s under-21’s (Nathaniel MG Cup) and The New Saints (JD Welsh Cup).
The head-to-head record in the last five meetings is as even as could be (Met won twice, Newtown won twice, drawn once), which means this game could go either way on Sunday.
League form:
Cardiff Met: ͏❌❌✅❌❌
Newtown: ✅➖➖❌✅
The New Saints (1st) v Connah’s Quay (2nd) | Sunday – 14:15
The New Saints are closing in on the domestic treble for the third time in their history and for the first time since 2015/16.
With only one league game left to play the Oswestry outfit will aim to become the first team to go the whole season without losing a league fixture since Barry Town United in 1997/98.
Barry Town United and Bala Town are the only clubs to trip up the Saints in the league this season with draws in August and September, but since then Craig Harrison’s side have won 25 successive league games, lifted the Nathaniel MG Cup, and reached the final of the JD Welsh Cup.
30 points separate the champions, The New Saints and runners-up Connah’s Quay, which is greater than the biggest gap ever between 1st and 2nd at the end of a season during the 12-team format (27pts between TNS and the Nomads in 2016/17).
With 89 points to their name, the Saints have already broken the record for most points in a season during the 12-team era and have also broken the record for most league goals (115).
15 of those goals have come in their three league meetings with Connah’s Quay (TNS 6-2 CQ, CQ 0-4 TNS, CQ 1-5 TNS) and Craig Harrison’s clan are unbeaten in eight contests against the Nomads (won six, drawn two).
The clubs will meet once again next weekend in the JD Welsh Cup final at Rodney Parade, Newport on Sunday, 28 April.
Therefore, both teams have two games left this season, and Connah’s Quay are the only team that can stop the Saints from completing the treble and go through the whole season without losing a domestic game.
TNS striker Brad Young (22 goals) goes into the final weekend three goals above Connah’s Quay forward Jordan Davies (19 goals) in the race for the Golden Boot.
Goalkeeper Connor Roberts has already grabbed the Golden Glove for the second consecutive season with 16 clean sheets in 31 league games to date.
And it’s an exciting battle to be the league’s top creator with three of the Saints’ stars sitting at the top of the assists chart – Daniel Redmond (16), Josh Daniels (14), Ben Clark (10).
League form:
The New Saints: ✅✅✅✅✅
Connah’s Quay: ➖✅➖❌❌
BOTTOM SIX
Aberystwyth Town (10th) v Pontypridd United (11th) | Sunday – 14:15 (S4C)
Haverfordwest County, Pen-y-bont and Barry Town United are now safe from the drop, so it is certain that only one of the bottom three: Aberystwyth Town, Pontypridd United and Colwyn Bay, will remain in the JD Cymru Premier this year.
This week it was announced that Pontypridd United are certain to be relegated as they failed to obtain a Tier 1 license, which means it is now a two-horse race between Aberystwyth Town and Colwyn Bay for the last survival spot.
This is an extremely disappointing ending at the end of a frustrating season for Pontypridd United who have already received a nine-point penalty for breaking league rules this year.
Pontypridd United finished 8th last year in their first ever season in the JD Cymru Premier under the management of Andrew Stokes, but administrative errors have led to the downfall of the club which will return to the second tier after only two seasons in the top-flight.
This is the fifth time since the formation of the 12-team format in 2010 that a club has lost their place in the league due to reasons that had nothing to do with the team’s results on the field.
Since 2010 Neath, Llanelli, Port Talbot, and Bangor City have all been relegated due to administrative issues, and Pontypridd United now join that unfortunate list.
The appeal outcome does not change the task for Aberystwyth Town, who still need a win on Sunday afternoon to make sure that Colwyn Bay do not climb above them.
Aberystwyth Town are one of the two clubs that have been ever-present in the Welsh Premier League since its formation in 1992 (along with Newtown), and after narrowly avoiding relegation on the final weekend of last season, the Seasiders are playing with fire yet again this year.
On the final weekend of last season Aberystwyth Town were in 11th place, level on points with Flint Town United, and as Pontypridd beat Flint (3-2), and Aberystwyth Town beat Caernarfon Town (3-2) the Black and Greens managed to escape from the drop on a dramatic afternoon at Park Avenue.
The Ceredigion crew will be hoping for another memorable day this weekend, while Colwyn Bay will be crossing everything that Pontypridd United can trip up Anthony Williams’ side.
After an excellent start to his time as Pontypridd United’s new manager, the luck has turned against Gavin Allen with the club now on a run of five games without a win, and four matches without a goal.
There were memorable matches between these two teams last season including a classic that ended 3-3 at Park Hall in February, before the Aberystwyth Town goalkeeper grabbed a late point for the Seasiders in April with a goal in injury time.
But Pontypridd United are now on a run of six games without defeat against Aberystwyth Town, and the Dragons have not lost in their four games against the Seasiders this season, nor conceded once (won three, drawn one).
League form:
Aberystwyth Town: ͏❌➖❌✅❌
Pontypridd United: ❌➖❌❌➖
Colwyn Bay (12th) v Barry Town United (9th) | Sunday – 14:15
Despite losing 21 of their 31 league games to date (68%), there is still hope for Colwyn Bay to avoid the drop on the final weekend.
The Seagulls will have to beat Barry Town United if they are to have any hope of escaping relegation and pray that Aberystwyth Town will fail to beat Pontypridd United.
Expectations were high when Colwyn Bay were promoted to the JD Cymru Premier over the summer after losing just once in the JD Cymru North last season.
But the Seagulls have not soared this year, and after winning only one of their last eight games it would be a miraculous escape if Steve Evans’ team were to secure safety on the final weekend.
Barry Town United was the other club to be promoted last summer, and the Linnets have already confirmed that they finish in 9th place this year.
The head-to-head record is level after four games between the clubs this season with both teams winning one apiece, and two draws.
League form:
Colwyn Bay: ❌✅❌❌➖
Barry Town United: ✅❌➖➖➖
Pen-y-bont (8th) v Haverfordwest County (7th) | Sunday – 14:15
Haverfordwest County start the final weekend three points above Pen-y-bont in the race for 7th place, which means a draw would be enough for the Bluebirds to claim their place in the play-offs for the second consecutive season.
Haverfordwest County finished 7th last season before going on to win the play-offs and beating Shkendija in Europe, and the Bluebirds are desperate for another chance to compete on the continent.
Pen-y-bont have a better goal difference than Haverfordwest County, therefore a victory for Rhys Griffiths’ side would lift them above their opponents on the last day of the regular season.
Pen-y-bont finished 3rd last season and went on to represent Wales in Europe for the first time in their history (losing 3-1 over two legs vs Santa Coloma, Andorra).
Both teams have been on strong runs recently with Pen-y-bont losing just once since the split, and Haverfordwest County winning their last four games in a row.
The teams have met five times in the league since the start of last season with Pen-y-bont and Haverfordwest County winning alternately in those games (Pen 3-2 Hav, Hav 2-1 Pen, Pen 2-0 Hav, Hav 3-2 Pen, Hav 0-1 Pen).
And since Pen-y-bont won the last game between the teams last month, then if the pattern was to continue, could it be the Bluebirds’ turn to celebrate on Sunday.
League form:
Pen-y-bont: ͏✅✅➖✅✅
Haverfordwest County: ͏✅✅✅✅❌
The highlights of the games will be available on Sgorio’s social websites, and the best of the weekend’s action can be seen on S4C on Monday evening.
