In less than a month the league will be split in two and for the rest of the season the Top Six clubs will compete for a place in Europe, while the Bottom Six teams will fight to avoid relegation.
The New Saints and Connah’s Quay have already secured their place in the top half, and Newtown and Cardiff Met could join them if results go their way on Boxing Day.
31 points is usually enough to claim a place in the Top Six, and a victory for Bala against Colwyn Bay would lift them to that target.
With three games to go until the break, Caernarfon Town are in 6th place, just three points above Haverfordwest County, and with the Cofis traveling to the home of the champions on Tuesday afternoon, the Bluebirds will hope to seize the opportunity to climb level on points with the Canaries.
Tuesday, 26 December
Colwyn Bay (10th) v Bala Town (5th) | Tuesday – 14:30
Bala Town will be determined to secure a win at Llanelian Road to rise to 31 points, which is the usual amount needed to reach the Top Six.
The Lakesiders are aiming to make it into the Top Six for the 10th successive season, while Colwyn Bay are fighting for their lives near the bottom of the table, with only three points separating them from Aberystwyth Town in the relegation zone.
There are key games in front of Colwyn Bay before the split as the Seagulls face crucial ‘six-pointers’ against both Aberystwyth Town and Pontypridd United, which are the other two clubs who are in trouble at the foot of the table.
No team has conceded more goals than Colwyn Bay this season (2.2 goals per game), but Steve Evans’ side have scored more than Bala Town who have only netted 17 goals in 19 league games.
Bala Town have had more draws than any other team in the league (7), and the defence has been resilient at Maes Tegid as only The New Saints have conceded less than the Lakesiders (0.8 goals per game).
It ended 2-1 for Bala Town in the reverse fixture in October, and Colin Caton will be keen to complete the double over his former club on Boxing Day.
Fixtures before the split:
Colwyn Bay: Cfon (a), Aber (a), Pont (h)
Bala Town: New (h), Hav (a)
League form:
Colwyn Bay: ❌❌✅✅❌
Bala Town: ❌✅➖✅➖
Haverfordwest County (7th) v Barry Town United (9th) | Tuesday – 14:30
Haverfordwest County are aiming to secure a place in the Top Six for the first time since the league was reduced to 12 teams.
The Bluebirds have not finished higher than 7th place since the 2004/05 season when they managed to reach the 4th position with only The New Saints, Rhyl and Bangor City finishing above them that year.
Before their loss against The New Saints on Saturday, Haverfordwest County had gone on a run of five league games without defeat, closing the gap on Caernarfon (6th) to just three points.
It seems that the Top Six is realistically out of reach for Barry Town United, and the Dragons need to start firing if they want to climb clear of the bottom two.
Barry Town United lost against Colwyn Bay in the Welsh Cup in their latest outing, following their heaviest defeat in the league for 20 years against Connah’s Quay the previous weekend (CQ 7-0 Barry).
Ricky Watts was the hero for Haverfordwest County in the reverse fixture in August, netting twice in the final minutes to nick a point at Jenner Park (Barr 2-2 Hav), and Barry have not won away at Bridge Meadow in over 12 years.
Fixtures before the split:
Haverfordwest County: Aber (a), Bala (h)
Barry Town United: Met (h), New (h), Aber (a)
League form:
Haverfordwest County: ❌✅➖✅✅
Barry Town United: ❌➖✅❌✅
Cardiff Met (4th) v Pen-y-bont (8th) | Tuesday – 14:30
With a game to spare it seems that Cardiff Met have done enough to claim a spot in the Top Six for the second season in a row, and a win on Boxing Day would confirm their place.
The Archers have won six of their last eight league matches and have only lost one league game at home this season (vs TNS).
Pen-y-bont on the other hand are having an extremely disappointing campaign, and after finishing 3rd last season and reaching Europe for the first time in their history, it looks increasingly unlikely that Rhys Griffiths’ team will reach the Top Six this year.
Pen-y-bont will need to win their next three games if they are to have any real hope of competing for 6th place, which will be a mammoth task for the club who have only won one of their last 10 league games, losing seven of those.
It ended goalless in the corresponding match between the two teams in August, but Pen-y-bont have not lost in four meetings with Cardiff Met (two wins, two draws).
Fixtures before the split:
Cardiff Met: Barr (a), TNS (a), Cfon (a)
Pen-y-bont: Pont (h), CQ (h)
League form:
Cardiff Met: ✅✅➖✅✅
Pen-y-bont: ❌❌➖❌➖
Pontypridd United (12th) v Aberystwyth Town (11th) | Tuesday – 14:30
Although the Independent Arbitration Panel found Pontypridd United guilty of breaching league rules regarding contracts, payments and playing ineligible players, the club has only received a six-point deduction with an additional 135 points suspended until the end of the 2024/25 season.
Pontypridd United can now focus on their efforts on the field, where things are not going well to say the least, with the team securing just one point from their last eight games.
The point deduction has seen Pontypridd United drop to the bottom of the table, but only four points separate them from Aberystwyth Town in the relegation places.
Pontypridd United have only scored eight goals in 19 league games to date (0.4 goals per game), therefore manager Andrew Stokes has a huge challenge ahead if he aims to steer to keep the club from the fall.
Aberystwyth Town are also in danger of dropping out of the league for the first time in their history with the club having lost five consecutive games in all competitions.
The teams have already met twice at Park Avenue this season with Pontypridd United beating Aberystwyth Town 1-0 in the league and in the Nathaniel MG Cup.
Fixtures before the split:
Pontypridd United: Pen (a), CB (a)
Aberystwyth Town: Hav (h), CB (h), Barr (h)
League form:
Pontypridd United: ❌❌❌❌➖
Aberystwyth Town: ❌❌❌❌✅
Newtown (3rd) v Connah’s Quay (2nd) | Tuesday – 14:30
Nine points separate Newtown and Haverfordwest County (7th), but the Robins cannot rest on their laurels yet as there are tough games ahead of them before the split.
This will be Newtown’s final home game before the split, with trips to Bala Town, Barry Town United and the New Saints coming up, which means that Chris Hughes’ clan can’t afford to get complacent.
Eight points above them are Connah’s Quay, who are in a promising position to finish second again this year and secure an automatic ticket to Europe.
Newtown forward Aaron Williams is still the league’s top scorer with 15 goals, but Jordan Davies from Connah’s Quay is hot on his heels, having scored 14 goals and created three, contributing to more goals than anyone else in the league (17).
Davies scored after just one minute in the reverse fixture in August with Connah’s Quay won 3-1 at Cae-y-Castell, and the Nomads will be the favourites again on Tuesday after losing just one of their 17 previous meetings with Newtown (won 12, drawn four).
Fixtures before the split:
Newtown: Bala (a), Barr (a), TNS (a)
Connah’s Quay: TNS (h), Pen (a)
League form:
Newtown: ✅✅➖✅❌
Connah’s Quay: ✅✅✅❌❌
The New Saints (1st) v Caernarfon Town (6th) | Tuesday – 14:30
The New Saints are enjoying a run of 27 games without defeat in all competitions and have won 19 in a row, breaking nine points clear at the top of the league with a game in hand.
This is the Oswestry outfit’s best run since August 2016 to February 2017 (31 games without losing), and during that time they broke the world record with 27 consecutive victories.
Caernarfon Town are currently sitting in the crucial 6th position, but Haverfordwest County (7th) could come level on points with the Cofis ahead of the last two games before the split.
Caernarfon Town have only won one of their last six games (drawn one, lost four), and although Richard Davies’ team have spent the whole season in the top half so far, the Cofis are in danger of losing their spot at the final stretch.
The Canaries have not won any of their last 12 games against the Oswestry giants with the Saints winning the previous eight meetings between the teams.
Fixtures before the split:
The New Saints: CQ (a), Met (h), New (h)
Caernarfon Town: CB (h), Met (a)
League form:
The New Saints: ✅✅✅✅✅
Caernarfon Town: ❌✅➖❌❌
All highlights will be available on Sgorio’s online accounts.
